The risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction from emerging technologies and artificial intelligence (AI)

In recent years, the remarkable development of emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence (AI), has opened up many opportunities to improve human life, from healthcare and education to manufacturing. However, alongside their enormous benefits, these technologies also pose serious threats, including the risk of proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The combination of AI and other scientific advances may, intentionally or unintentionally, facilitate the development, deployment and use of WMD on an unprecedented scale and at unprecedented speed.

One of the greatest concerns is the potential for AI to assist in the development of biological or chemical weapons. With its ability to process huge amounts of data and make accurate predictions, AI could be used to design new viruses or toxic agents far beyond anything humans have created using traditional methods. For example, a sufficiently powerful AI system could analyse molecular structures, simulate chemical reactions and optimise lethal compounds, significantly reducing research time and costs. Even more alarming is that, owing to the spread of open-source tools and publicly available data, this technology is no longer confined to major powers but could fall into the hands of non-state actors or individuals with malicious intent.

In addition, AI-integrated autonomous weapon systems, often referred to as "killer robots", are also becoming a reality. These systems can identify and attack targets on their own without human intervention, increasing the risk of conflicts escalating out of control. When combined with nuclear weapons or other destructive technologies, they could lead to lightning wars in which decisions are made in a split second without rational or ethical consideration. Some experts fear that if countries race to develop such systems, the result could be global instability similar to, or even exceeding, the nuclear arms race of the Cold War.

Emerging technologies such as 3D printing and nanotechnology are also exacerbating the problem. For example, 3D printing could allow weapon components to be produced on site, while nanotechnology could create ultrafine particles carrying toxic or radioactive substances that are easily dispersed without being detected. When supported by AI, these technologies not only become more effective but also lower technical barriers, making the production of WMD more accessible than ever before.

To address this risk, many scientists and policymakers are calling for strict international regulations on the military use of AI and new technologies. However, the challenge lies in the lack of global consensus and in the pace of technological development, which far outstrips the capacity of regulatory bodies to keep it under control. Without timely measures, the proliferation of WMD at the hands of AI could become an existential threat to humanity.

Tao Thuan – Centre 81