Risks and Solutions for Preventing War in Russia's New National Security Strategy

In the face of external and internal threats, “including unfriendly actions by foreign countries”, on 2 July 2021 Russia published its new National Security Strategy. The Strategy addresses many issues, prioritising the protection of the national interests of Russian citizens both at home and abroad.

Identifying certain risks

Russia's new National Security Strategy assesses that the current world situation is characterised by the emergence of new global and regional centres of power, intensifying the struggle for spheres of influence, while military force is increasingly used by actors in international relations to achieve geopolitical objectives. The military dangers and threats to Russia and its allies and partners are growing as a result of NATO building up military infrastructure close to its borders, stepping up intelligence activities, and conducting exercises involving large troop formations and even nuclear weapons against Russia. Amid the expansion of global missile defence systems, the United States is pursuing the goal of abandoning its international obligations in the field of arms control and is aggressively deploying intermediate- and shorter-range missiles in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, threatening strategic stability and international security. At the same time, the weakening of recognised norms and principles of international law, the decline and erosion of existing international legal institutions, and the gradual dismantling of the system of arms control treaties and agreements have increased political and military tensions in the regions bordering Russia. Some countries are seeking to promote activities that sow division among the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and to undermine Russia's relations with its traditional allies, regarding Russia as a “threat”, a “military adversary”, and so on. In this context, there is a growing risk of armed conflicts escalating into local and regional wars involving nuclear powers; tensions continue to escalate in a number of conflict areas in the post-Soviet space, the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and the Korean Peninsula. The weakening of the global and regional security systems facilitates the spread of international terrorism and extremism. All these developments have a direct or indirect impact on the national security of the Russian Federation.

To carry out the tactic of “internal attack combined with external pressure”, “unfriendly states” are seeking to exploit socio-economic difficulties in the Russian Federation to undermine internal unity, incite and radicalise protest movements, support marginal groups and divide Russian society; to stir up and aggravate ethnic and religious conflicts; and to engage in manipulation in the information sphere. International terrorist and extremist organisations are seeking to step up propaganda and the recruitment of Russian citizens, to set up clandestine cells on Russian territory and to draw Russian young people into illegal activities. Global Internet companies are widely used to spread inaccurate information and to organise illegal actions.

The rapid development of information and communication technologies is increasing the threats to the security of the people, society and the State of Russia. In these conditions, the use of information and communication technologies to interfere in the internal affairs of states, undermine sovereignty, violate territorial integrity and threaten international peace and security is increasing, and the number of computer attacks on Russian information resources is growing. While foreign intelligence services are stepping up their activities in Russia's information space, their armed forces are conducting operations aimed at disabling the critical information infrastructure of the Russian Federation. Most of these attacks are carried out from outside Russian territory. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation's initiatives to ensure international information security are meeting strong opposition from certain countries – countries seeking to dominate the global information space.

Solutions for prevention

To prevent the risk of war, Russia's new National Security Strategy sets out a number of solutions, focusing on such areas as forecasting the risk of war, strengthening defence potential, improving the military planning system and enhancing combat readiness.

Forecasting the risk of war. The Strategy states that existing and potential military dangers and risks of war must be detected in a timely manner. At the same time, trends in the changing nature of modern warfare and armed conflict must be studied. Maintaining sufficient nuclear deterrence potential. Russia's new nuclear deterrence policy clearly identifies the risks of aggression that the country faces. These include: a potential aggressor deploying conventional armed forces, including nuclear weapons, in territories and waters adjacent to the borders of Russia and its allies; deploying missile defence systems, cruise missiles, intermediate- and shorter-range ballistic missiles, non-nuclear and hypersonic weapons, unmanned aerial vehicles and directed-energy weapons; deploying missile defence and strike systems in outer space; and placing nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction in a state of readiness for use in a pre-emptive strike against Russia or its allies. To implement its new nuclear deterrence policy successfully under conditions of a limited defence budget, Russia has successfully researched, developed and fielded weapons based on new scientific principles, fully capable of penetrating all existing and medium-term future missile shields of potential adversaries, and is ready to deliver a retaliatory nuclear strike in the event of aggression.

Improving the quality of military planning. To meet the requirements of the new and highly complex situation, Russia will focus on developing and implementing a comprehensive set of political, military, technical, diplomatic, economic and information plans, options and measures to prevent the use of force against it and to protect the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity. In the current unstable and highly unpredictable political and military situation, the new National Security Strategy requires that, more than ever, Russia must enhance the combat readiness of its armed forces, especially its branches, combined-arms armies and military bodies, maintaining a high level of political, moral and psychological readiness, order and military discipline, so as to enable the Russian armed forces to realise their combat capabilities to the fullest. To deal with a possible future war, Russia is concentrating on the balanced development of the components and military organisation of the State, including both regular and irregular forces, and both national defence and civil defence forces. While avoiding being drawn into an extremely costly arms race, Russia can still step up the research, development, production and fielding of new types of weapons based on new principles and of special design, some even unique in the world, to equip its armed forces. The military-technical potential of the State's military organisation will be updated in a timely manner and maintained at a sufficient level, while ensuring technological independence and the capacity for innovative development of the defence industry.

Enhancing mobilisation capacity for a war to defend the Fatherland. The new Strategy states that the planning and implementation of the measures needed to prepare mobilisation capacity and mobilisation readiness, prepare defence, protect the population and protect material and cultural assets against dangers arising from, or as a consequence of, military conflicts must be improved, together with the economic preparation of Russia, of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and of municipalities. State bodies, local authorities, organisations, the Russian armed forces and other forces must always be ready to defend the country against the threat of armed attack and to meet the needs of the country and its people in wartime. Drawing on the lessons of the Great Patriotic War during the Second World War, the new National Security Strategy clearly sets the task of stepping up patriotic education for Russian citizens, first and foremost the younger generation, and preparing citizens to perform military service. As Russia's traditional spiritual, moral, cultural and historical values come under attack from hostile forces, Russia needs, more than ever, to foster patriotism and to uphold and protect the nation's traditional values, beliefs and faith. It will continuously improve the system of benefits and policies for service members, their families and citizens who have completed military service, improve the conditions of military service, and regard service in the armed forces as the noblest duty of a Russian citizen, and so on.

It can be seen that Russia's new National Security Strategy clearly identifies a number of risks that could lead to war, and proactively prepares the country in all respects to prevent war and firmly protect national sovereignty, the national interests and the Russian people in the new conditions.

Senior Colonel LE THE MAU